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Version 2015 (Build 1.2, March 10, 2015) had the following changes relative to Version 2015, Build 1.1 (described below): Better error trapping was added to prevent users from attempting forecast runs using WXSIM-Lite data, if WXSIM-Lite has not yet been used to produce a forecast. A very rare error, which could produce an 'Invalid property value' error at the very end of a forecast run, has been addressed and probably corrected (according to initial tests from the users reporting the error). This resulted from occasional spurious attempts to open the advection form at or near the end of a forecast run. While the exact cause of this has not been identified, the protection consists of having the form unload itself if activated after 98% of the forecast run is complete. A log file called adv_activate_error_log is now created to document occasions on which this protection is called upon, even when the error is successfully avoided. The default bias corrections to GFS data on the 4th tab under Preferences/Settings have been changed to neutral values, presuming that the new 0.25 degree GFS data has no known temperature, cloudiness, or precipitation biases. The data retrieval program, wret.exe, now has a more informative message when it traps errors due to misplaced data in log files (such as from Weather Display). Version 2015 (Build 1.1, January 2, 2015) had the following changes relative to Version 2015, Build 1.0 (described below): Better error trapping was added to prevent users from attempting forecast runs using WXSIM-Lite data, if WXSIM-Lite has not yet been used to produce a forecast. A very rare error, which could produce an 'Invalid property value' error at the very end of a forecast run, has been addressed and probably corrected (according to initial tests from the user reporting the error) Version 2015 (Build 1.0, December 31, 2014) had the following changes relative to version 12.12.1 (described below): First, a new naming convention has been adopted, using build numbers and major release years, starting with 2015 being released just prior to that year. Most importantly, WXSIM has been modified to use data from the new companion program, WXSIM-Lite. That program (included in the WXSIM installation and upgrade packages) makes forecasts using a different approach, in which GFS (and later perhaps additional model data) is downloaded, adjusted and interpolated in various ways, and then saved for later comparison to actual data from a personal weather station. WXSIM-Lite can then analyze the results to build a sophisticated set of bias corrections to apply to future forecasts, somewhat like WXSIM's own 'learning' routine. Months of testing have shown WXSIM-Lite's temperature forecasts to be generally more accurate - by about 15 percent, and maybe more for some sites - than WXSIM's own forecasts. However, data also suggest that WXSIM's forecasts have indepent value, especially for short term and nighttime forecasts, so the potential exists for mixing of WXSIM and WXSIM-Lite forecasts to produce forecasts better than either alone (though only a bit better than WXSIM-Lite's forecasts). This new version of WXSIM allows WXSIM-Lite's temperature and dew point forecasts to influence WXSIM's output to a user-specificied extent. This is almost sure to produce the biggest single improvement in WXSIM's accuracy in many years. It is possible (and advantantageous) to use WXSIM's own learning feature concurrently with incorporation of WXSIM'Lite's data. Information is stored in WXSIM's forecasts to indicate the extent to which WXSIM-Lite's data was mixed in, and this information is carefully taken into account in later use of learned bias corrections. In other words, both programs can 'learn' at the same time without conflict or any need of second-guessing on the part of the user. IMPORTANT NOTES: The ability to mix in WXSIM-Lite data is available in WXSIM's professional mode only. Also, the current plan is for WXSIM-Lite's special data to become subscription only (at a very low rate, but enough to cover server and ongoing development costs) at a later date, perhaps in late February, 2015. Meanwhile, the data are temporarily free of charge. The Auto Run form under the Start menu item has been expanded and organized (and renamed as 'Auto Run and Other Settings'), and now includes access to the form for mixing in WXSIM-Lite data and also control over end-of-forecast settings formerly accessible only (and perhaps inconveniently) on the Output form. A new option to alter the appearance of WXSIM's main programs has been added (button on the new 'Auto Run and Other Settings' form). This allows use of 'XP and later Windows Styles', if you are using Windows 7 or later (it actually causes some bad display of option buttons in XP itself). You can toggle back and forth between the style options to see what you like best. Various cosmetic and informational changes were made, including a new color scheme for WXSIM's Data Entry form. Potential use of imported GFS data has been expanded to include up to 9 days of data (the maximum length of a WXSIM forecast), instead of the previous 7.5 day maximum. This will become relevant when the GFS data downloaded by WXSIMATE is changed over to the upcoming 0.25 degree resolution version. The implementation date of this is uncertain as of this writing, but hopefully will be done by sometime in February, 2015. Wording of the convective bulletins about 'Showers unlikely' and 'Showers very unlikely' has been changed by adding the word 'Convective', so that contradictory-looking text about showers being unlikely while (stable) rain is forecast will no longer appear. The autolearn.exe program has been updated to version 2.0, which allows graphs of the history from correc.txt The Daylight Saving Time setting (always a pain in the past, I know) is a bit simpler now. When you change the check box in WXSIM, it should make the same change in wret.exe and wxsimate.exe as well (that does not work in reverse, though). I do have a "warning" system in place, which looks for evidence that the setting does not go with the computer's clock. It's still a bit complicated, though, because there are reasons (at least for me) to alter the setting (for example, in wret.exe, if I'm analyzing old forecasts from another season). So, the change is not made automatically. However, it should warn you (at least the first time DST status changes) and you can now make the change globally. A small bug was fixed: at the beginning of the forecast, the advection routine was displaying (though apparently not actually using) a "normal" temperature (for the time and date), instead of the actual temperature, as the "home" temperature, against which actual upwind temperatures are compared to generate an advection profile. This has been corrected so that the actual temperature at the time is displayed. Version 12.12.1 (May 3, 2014) had the following changes relative to Version 12.12 (described below): The ability to forecast wind speeds at specified heights above the ground, for use in forecasting wind turbine power output, was added. This additional data is displayed, along with other relevant data, in a new output file called latestturbine.csv. This feature is not generally available to all users, but is something I can customize specifically for the site, based on turbine height, surface roughness, and (optionally) past wind history. Warnings and measures have been added to wret.exe to prevent users from trying to use 'combined' data in the analysis for learned bias corrections. The purpose of the 'Combine' box on the comparison to actuals graph is to allow display of hourly-averaged data, not to develop correction factors. A bug in wret.exe, which could cause an 'Invalid procedure call' error, has been corrected. Another bug in wret.exe, which occasionally and mistakenly caused rejection of data (for developing learned bias corrections) has been corrected. This was a simply typographical error in a variable name in my code. wret.exe now is able to circumvent a problem involving reading of WeatherLink data. It seems that occasionally, the first couple days of the month (for one user, anyway) have some garbled data, either due to the .wlk files themselves, or perhaps to WXSIMATE's interpretation of that data (which is binary "gobble-dee-gook"). It now skips over such stuff until it find reliable data and uses only that. This affects the autolearn and Auto Select routines, but again, only if you are using WeatherLink. wxsim.exe has a change which should have no effect whatsoever on any existing customization. This is a customizable feature controlling the extent of mixing in light winds under strong inversions, primarily in arctic regions. Generally, the problem (based on data from a site in Yukon, Canada) was that such mixing was too weak, and this change makes it possible for me to strengthn it, if needed, in customizing. An erroneous message telling the user to uncheck the 'Run optional DOS batch file' (when it was in fact not checked) in WXSIM has been corrected. Actually, I am not sure if this bug was present in the official version 12.12, or if it was only in a beta version since then. Either way, it is now corrected. A rarely occurring, but longstanding (several years!) error #6 ('overflow') in both wxsim.exe and wret.exe has been solved. This error occurred when the 'Shell' command was called to open another program (such as wxsim.exe opening wret.exe at the end of a forecast). I finally discovered that it was a case of my having declared the 'task number' to be an integer, but occasionally, on some computers, the system would assign a number bigger than 32767, which is the highest integer allowed. I have now declared this variable as 'double precision', which should totally sove this problem. Version 12.12 (February 5, 2014) hadthe following changes relative to Version 12.11 (described below): A more sophisticated treatment of the learned bias corrections has been implemented. This modifies the "slope bias correction" in such a way that there is a smooth tail-off in the effect when departures from normal temperature are greater than the average amount of departure from normal in the analysis. Something like this existed in previous version, but the function was discontinuous in slope and did not reduce the bias sufficiently. This one reduces it to about a third of the "learned" value when departures are more than about twice the average amount of departure. Also, a very thorough statistical analysis of thousands of forecasts, combined with studies using randomly generated data in Excel, suggested that extending small sample sizes of data to a larger range of conditions presents a problem: part of the error in error versus forecast departure from normal is an artifact of using (necessarily) the forecast departure as a basis, instead of the actual departure as a basis. Essentially, a too-warm forecast also tends to be an "above normal" forecast. I have now standardized the slope to be defined as appropriate when standard deviation of departure from normal is twice the standard deviation of the error itself. Outside this range, the slope is altered towards being a bit more "extreme" (allowing greater departures from normal). I believe this change will allow better transition between seasons, for instance by anticipating the possibility of larger temperature excursions in the fall, after a monotonous summer. Changes were made in wret.exe to the plots of error versus date and versus departure from normal, to increase readability and reflect the changes listed in (1), above. Bitmap plots, named errdate.bmp and errdep.bmp, are now made when the plots mentioned in (2) above are viewed, or when autolearn.exe completes its run of wret.exe. The default "distance ratio" on the advection form was reduced from 1.15 to 1.1, as this now appears to make more accurate fits for upwind advection profiles. An occasional overflow error (Visual Basic error number 6) resulting from the use of the Cint function in Visual Basic, with values over 32,767, was corrected by using Int(x+.5) instead. This error may have existed for a long time, but the change in the distance ration from 1.15 to 1.1 may have made it more likely to show up. A routine intended to better model mixing out of morning temperature inversions was found to have bad effects (a brief dip in temperature around noon) on cloudy days with light winds, mainly in winter at high latitudes. This has been corrected by phasing the effect out as cloud cover increases. Changes were made to hopefully avert a rare printer error in cases when no printing was requested. Changes were made to slightly reduce the diurnal temperature range and also the rate of air mass modification in colder than normal weather. This was based on careful study and re-running of forecasts of historical data, mainly during arctic air outbreaks. A sort of climatological filtering has been applied when GFS model data is being used, so that temperatures past about 2 days into the forecast are trended slightly towards normal. This "correction" is actually only about half the theoretically optimum value, so as to preserve some of the underlying run-to-run variability, but still tone down unrealistic extremes which crop up at times. The treatment is season and location specific, by taking into consideration typical standard deviation of error in GFS data along with typical standard deviation of actual temperature. Maximum daily snow depth was added (to the existing average daily snow depth) in the Supplemental Dat section in the scrolling text output and in latest.txt. Internal changes were made in the main forecast module to allow room for the additional code. The learned bias corrections displayed under Preferences/Settings in WXSIM are now in familiar units (i.e. degrees F or C) instead of the cryptic raw values diplsayed in previous versions. A failure to clear out old data had sometimes caused brief (only in the first three hours or less of the forecast) excursions, mainly in barometric pressure, when using GFS data. This has been corrected. A very slight increase in the weighting of the "clear thickness maxiumum" (an estimate of clear sky maximum temperature based on the thickness of the lowest 130 millibars or so of the atmosphere) was made, so that daily maximum temperatures will be constrained slightly (a couple of tenths of a degree, typically) closer to this figure. Version 12.11 (January 1, 2014) had the following changes relative to Version 12.10.2 (described below): An oversight in wret.exe caused (only for users of Cumulus) the ‘Comparison to Actuals’, as well as the learning routines (through Auto Select or autolearn.exe) to jump back to January, 2013 after December 31, 2013, instead of proceeding to January, 2014. This has been corrected. Since the change involves only wret.exe and the official selease was just yesterday, I am simply repackaging the installer with this change, rather than renaming the entire version. Options for sea surface temperature on the Diurnal Breeze form were made more simple and explicit. There are now option buttons for either using default sea temperatures or user-entered ones. These settings take effect as soon as the OK button is pressed, and are saved for future runs until changed. The default (climatological) sea temperature now changes with each day of the forecast, rather than retaining the value from the first day. A typographical error in a warning about far-from-normal sea surface temperatures was corrected: "10.8" Celsius was changed to "6" Celsius. Messages about missing local calibration data (from localcal.txt) are now deferred to the auxiliary external messaging program (wxerr.exe) so that they will not interrupt auto runs. The 'Offset' and 'Range' factors in WXSIM were previously simply stored values which the user needed to keep consistent with 'Dep' and 'Rng' in wret.exe (which are used in developing learned bias correction factors through Auto Select or autolearn.exe). They were not - and still are not - used in any way in generating a forecast, but are written into latest.wxf as a record of the user's intent in wret.exe at the time of the forecast. Changes have been made so that the values shown are read, both at forecast time and when the form is opened, from wret.exe's initialization file, retini.txt. Also, the boxes displaying the two values in WXSIM are now disabled for user modification, since they need to be enetered in wret.exe to be used. An unused form (gfsadj, whose functions were incorporated into the tabbed form under Preferences/Settings several versions ago) was deleted to reduce program size. Error trapping was improved in wret.exe to avoid crashes when latest.wxf is not found. Changes were made in the auto select ("learning") routine of wret.exe to avoid a "file already open" error that was reported by two users. Error trapping was improved in wret.exe's comparison to actuals and learning routines, by displaying the last line read from a potentially faulty weather station software log file in the error message. This allows the user to quickly find and correct the problem in the log file. The example motivating this change was a case of a few dates being out of order in a Weather Display log file, which caused a 'Subscript out of range' error in wret.exe. Minor cosmetic changes were made in wret.exe. Appropriate changes were made to WXSIM's blue-text help file. A bug which allowed the year to remain the same in .csv files, when January 1 is reached, was fixed. The change also applies to other routines which are functions of the year, such as climate and solar forcings. A bug similar to that above, involving the UTC time stamp in the lastret.txt file, was fixed in wret.exe. This also now has correct output across the change to the new year. In wret.exe, bitmap graphics are now automatically produced for the error as function of date and of departure from normal graphs when these are displayed. Also, these are briefly displayed, closed, and graphics created auto,atically by autolearn.exe when that program is used. Small wording changes were made in the output of wret.exe's auto select learning routine. Small changes were made in the advection form's output for quality of the curvature fit. Previously, erroneous values for "Spd" and "%" were briefly shown (but not actually used in the final fit). Also, the advection site map now shows the number of sites actually used for the fit rather than the total number found. On the data import form, the number of sites found for advection was sometimes shown too large by one (when MOS runs out and the program defaults to GFS). This has been corrected. A warning message now appears in WXSIM if the status of the DST (Daylight Saving Time) box does not match the status derived from internal data for the computer (derived from a comparison of the GMT system time and the adjusted time on the computer's clock, considering WXSIM's time zone information for the site). This message occurs only at start-up of WXSIM (as an internal message box) or in auto run at the end of a forecast (as an external message box which does not interfere with the forecast). There may be some users who run forecasts for sites outside of the computer's time zone. To accommodate this, there is an option to prevent the message from appearing after the first time. A possible fix to a problem involving a rare problem of failing to get fresh GFS data on the first run of the day has been implemented. Actually, the code for this fix existed in the last two versions, but was probably ineffective because a variable had not been declared globally; now it has. Small cosmetic changes were made to a couple of forms.Version 12.10.2, (September 23, 2013) had the following changes relative to Version 12.10.1 (described below): One or more causes of an occasional error 52 (bad file name or number) were corrected. As of this writing, such an error is being reported by only one user, with the cause seemingly something very system-dependent. If such an error is still encountered, two possible workarounds are UNchecking 'Minimize forms', CHECKING 'Omit log files' (both these on the Auto Run form), or (an almost certain fix) having WXSIM close after auto runs, and be reopened by a third-party scheduler. Wording was improved to be more instructive in the case of messages about not not having imported model data. A bug which often caused failure to use local station data in the calibration run was corrected. A separate, but related error was fixed in WXSIMATE as of version 5.3.2, completely correcting this type of error (which had only very minor effects on most forecasts). Autolearn.exe has been updated (now version 1.2) to improve clarity of use and avoid common user mistakes in connection with wret.exe, which also had small improvements in wording. wret.exe now formats correc.txt properly even with regional and language settings using commas as decimal separators (previously older data was split awkwardly into multiple lines). 2b1af7f3a8